Export Situation Survey, Third quarter 2018

The Synthetic Indicator of Export Activity (Spanish acronym: ISAE) has fallen as a result of the order backlog outlook in the third quarter

2018.10.16

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The ISAE is a compound indicator which summarises information from companies surveyed on the performance of their export order backlog in the reference quarter and their export outlook at three and twelve months.

This index may move between a range of -100 and +100. Positive values indicate a better perception of actual and/or expected export activity. The ISAE comprises, in turn, three simple indicators (order backlog balance for the current quarter, and order backlog outlook at three and 12 months) which are based on the difference between companies which expect an upward trend and those that expect a downward trend.

The fall in the ISAE has basically been the result of the performance of the indicator of the order backlog balance in the quarter, which stood at 8.5 points (18.3 in the previous quarter). This fall is partly the result of the normal lower activity in the summer quarter. The outlook at three months has improved by one point to 21 points, while that for the longer term, at 12 months, has barely changed. It is worth noting that the recovery of the indicator of the order backlog balance at three months is below that recorded in the same quarter in previous years.

Stability continues to be the dominant perception of the performance of export prices and margins, with a slowdown in the rise of both variables, particularly in the case of prices.

The three factors most mentioned as a positive influence on export activity are the performance of external demand (41.1%), competition in terms of quality (22.2%) and the availability of suitable human resources for export activity (16.9%), although these figures are lower than in the second quarter. The factors most mentioned as a negative influence are raw material prices (61.6%), international price competition (56.4%) and oil prices (54.7%), which have fallen by nearly 7 points in the negative outlook.

In the indicators for employment or hiring of personnel for export activities, the outlook is more negative than in the previous quarter. The value of the indicator for hiring in the current quarter (5.7) has fallen by 4 points, while the indicator for hiring at three months (8.6) has increased by more than 2 points, and that for hiring at 12 months (16) has risen by more than 4 points. The indicator of employment in export activities has also fallen by 6 points to 7.4.

Broken down by export destination, the indicator balance of the order backlog in the current quarter has worsened in all destinations, except Africa and Oceania. The short-term expectations of the order backlog have improved in the EU-28, Asia, Africa and Oceania, and worsened in the rest, with particularly significant declines in non-EU European countries and Latin America.

The main export destinations for the next 12 months are France (45.3%), Germany (41.7%), Italy (23%), the UK (22.2%), the USA, (21.7%), Portugal (20.4%), Mexico (13.6%), Morocco (11%), China (10.5%) and Poland (9.9%).

The full report can be consulted on this website.