Companies' export prospects at 12 months and for new hirings improve

Export companies improved their prospects of growing their order backlog at 12 months, which is also true for the forecast on new hirings. Export prospects at three months are down due to the seasonal effect of lower activity in the summer, which means the Synthetic Index of Export Activity (Spanish acronym: ISAE) has fallen by 2.8 points, to stand at 23.4 points in the second quarter of the year.

The ISAE is a compound indicator which summarises information from companies surveyed on the performance of their export order backlog in the reference quarter and their export outlooks at three and twelve months. This index may move within a range of -100 to +100. Positive values indicate a better perception of actual and/or expected export activity. The ISAE comprises, in turn, three simple indicators (order backlog balance for the current quarter, and order backlog outlooks at three and 12 months) which are based on the difference between the percentage of companies which expect an upward trend and those that expect the trend to be downward.

The indicator balance for the present quarter stands at 20.9 points for the second quarter, very similar to the previous quarter (21.3 points). The outlook at three months has fallen to 18.8 points (30.9 in the first quarter), in line with seasonal factors associated with the summer holidays, while the outlook at 12 months has improved by almost three points to 40.3.

With regard to export prices, stability is the dominant feature, although the profit margin from exports shows a slightly negative trend.

The three factors most mentioned as a positive influence are the performance of external demand (46.6%), competition in terms of quality (22.1%) and suitable human resources (21.1%). And the factors most mentioned as a negative influence are raw material prices (54.8%), international price competition (53.9%) and oil prices (39%). Compared with the previous quarter, the negative outlook for raw material and oil prices has fallen slightly while competition in terms of prices has risen.

In terms of the trend in the hiring of personnel for export activities, the outlook is positive. The indicators for the current quarter (9.9 points) and for the next 12 months (16 points) are respectively higher by one and more than three points on the previous period while hiring at three months (7.3 points) has fallen by barely two tenths. The indicators of employment in export activities have also risen, by a little more than two points.

Broken down by export destinations, the current indicator balance is very similar to the previous quarter, although it has worsened in Asia and significantly improved in Oceania. In turn, the indicator balance for the order backlog at three months has fallen for all destinations except Latin America and Oceania.

The main export destinations for the next 12 months are France (40.4%), Germany (38.9%), Italy (21%), the USA, (20.4%), Portugal (18.6%), the UK (18.6%), Mexico (11.8%), China (11%) and Poland (10.1%).